The wheat crisis exacerbated by the Ukraine-Russia war threatens food security, that is, the security of food supplies. A group of researchers analyze its evolution and propose some essential interventions, in Nature Food, to mitigate the risk of a global crisis that could last many years. (1)
Wheat crisis and food security
The premise is the mix of effects generated by the Ukrainian conflict on supplies of grain (consumed by 2.5 billion people), fertilizer and energy sources. The export freeze, sanctions and speculation have inflamed prices.
‘InMarch 2022, the food price index reached a record high since its introduction in 1990, rising by 12.6 percent, driven by grain and vegetable oil prices: the price of wheat alone rose by 19.7 percent in March,’ the researchers recall.
Wheat, the role of Russia and Ukraine
The weight of Russia and Ukraine in grain supplies is explained by the numbers. From those soils in 2020 came 28 percent of world wheat exports. Their shortage (and high prices) undermines food security in low- and lower-income countries in North Africa, the Middle East, the Mediterranean, sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.
The food security crisis (exacerbated by the wheat emergency) is particularly severe, as illustrated in iPES FOOD’s (2022) report on global food market failures:
- in Egypt, where more than half of the 21 mln t of wheat consumed annually comes from abroad. In 2021, 50 percent ofimports came from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.
- in Yemen, Sudan and Bangladesh. (2)
The essential interventions
The current scenario, according to the paper’s authors, requires some essential interventions:
1) Mitigating the food security crisis in the short term.
To meet demand, production should be increased with dedicated economic incentives (e.g., inputs, machinery, etc.) while expanding cultivation in suitable areas (Canada, the U.S., Europe). But also:
- Incentivize farmers to grow wheat by setting guaranteed minimum (fair, ed) prices,
- Preserve stocks, if necessary, reserving them for food use only,
- experiment with flour blends, adding nutrient-rich and/or resilient crops such as legumes, cassava, sorghum and millet to wheat.
Instead, ensuring global access to grain requires supranational policies (at the UN level) to disincentivize speculation through taxes and controls designed to prevent exports at the first signs of crisis.
2) Stabilize grain supply.
Interventions to be played in the medium term also start with increased production. Many countries have untapped potential. Researchers cite the case of the East African highlands and southern Africa. However, decisions depend on national priorities. Sometimes ‘heterodirected’.
Ethiopia’s government policy is moving in this direction, aiming for wheat self-sufficiency by expanding cultivation in the less populated lowlands and central parts of the country. Beyond good intentions, the researchers warn, the path to self-sufficiency requires reforms in agricultural policy and the provision of basic services such as credit, logistics, education and communications.
‘In many contexts, the basic systems needed to build grain self-sufficiency are underdeveloped.’
Appropriate technical support can help increase productivity of existing crops. Change is generated even with modest investments, such as row planting, targeted use of fertilizers (and biostimulants, ed.), better pest control, integration with legume crops, etc. Up to the most advanced satellite crop observation systems.
3) Improving the resilience of the agribusiness system.
The essential interventions indicated in the short and medium term are in any case insufficient to ensure the stability of food security. The way forward in the long run is the transition to agribusiness system resilience.
A focal point is the protection of soils. The advocated expansion of production, the researchers warn, must not debase areas of the planet vital in biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services. See the case of Brazil, which consumes forest unchecked foragribusiness. (3)
‘A transition to agrifood systemresilience will require balancing food supply needs with the imperatives of climate change mitigation and adaptation, gender equity (women are the first victims of food crises, ed.), nutritional sufficiency and livelihood security,’ the researchers conclude.
Cover image taken from the study in footnote 1.
Notes
(1) Bentley, A.R., Donovan, J., Sonder, K. et al. Near- to long-term measures to stabilize global wheat supplies and food security. Nat Food 3, 483-486 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00559-y
(2) Marta Strinati. Rising prices and food crisis in wartime. Background in iPES FOOD report. GIFT (Great Italian Food Trade), 10.5.22
(3) Dario Dongo, Isis Consuelo Sanlucar Chirinos. Land grabbing and deforestation in Brazil, the barbarities continue. GIFT (Great Italian Food Trade), 5/20/22.
Professional journalist since January 1995, he has worked for newspapers (Il Messaggero, Paese Sera, La Stampa) and periodicals (NumeroUno, Il Salvagente). She is the author of journalistic surveys on food, she has published the book "Reading labels to know what we eat".
